The move the Vikings made three weeks ago remains a fascinating one, largely because we don’t know exactly why they did it. Why pull the trigger on a trade in the middle of March that sent two second-round picks to the Texans for the No. 23 overall pick? It’s easy to see why the Texans, who just shipped Minnesota’s 2025 second-rounder to the Bills for Stefon Diggs, made the move. It’s a bit more difficult to understand why the Vikings felt the need to make that deal more than a month ahead of the draft.
The assumption is that the Vikings made the trade to give themselves more ammo to make a big move up the board for a quarterback. In theory, a team picking in the top five will value the Vikings’ two first-round picks (Nos. 11 and 23) more than a traditional package consisting of one current-year first-rounder paired with future picks. The Vikings have said publicly that they valued the flexibility that these two picks give them — and that staying put at 11 and 23 is an option — but would they really have made the deal if they aren’t planning on moving into the top five?
The Vikings are in a tricky situation as they try to potentially trade up for a quarterback.
Three weeks later, there has been no subsequent transaction by the Vikings. Maybe this isn’t surprising; they could be waiting until draft day to see how the first few picks go. Even with two first-round picks, the Vikings have a difficult predicament. They appear to have telegraphed their trade-up aspirations to all of the top five teams, giving them the leverage to make Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Rob Brzezinski overpay in order to close a deal.
According to a recent ESPN quarterback-only mock draft, the Vikings trade picks 11 and 23 as well as their 2025 first-round pick to move up to the Cardinals’ fourth pick and take J.J. McCarthy. That seems like a lot to pay to move McCarthy up seven slots, but Arizona has all the leverage. They could stay put and sign Marvin Harrison Jr., but they could also negotiate with other teams, including the Giants, Broncos, and Raiders, about possible deals. If McCarthy is higher on the Vikings’ board than Michael Penix Jr., they may have to pay a significant price to move up to 4 or even the Chargers’ pick at 5. If they want to convince the Patriots to trade out of three, it will most likely take 11, 23, next year’s first, and even more on top of that.
Finally, we can’t completely evaluate the trade with the Texans until we see what the Vikings do in the draft. Fortunately, we’re just three weeks away from finding out.
