The Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns, Milwaukee Bucks, and Philadelphia 76ers all began the 2023–24 NBA season with championship aspirations. All four didn’t even make it out of the first round of the playoffs. That could have major offseason ramifications for different reasons.
The same goes for the Los Angeles Clippers if they lose to the Dallas Mavericks in the first round, even though Kawhi Leonard has missed most of the game with a knee injury. Combine that with some of the teams that missed the playoffs—including the Golden State Warriors, Sacramento Kings, Houston Rockets, Chicago Bulls, and Atlanta Hawks—and the stage may soon be set for an explosive summer.
“I think there’s going to be a lot more player movement this summer.” 👀 @wojespn on the Miami Heat and what the upcoming NBA off-season could look like ✍️ pic.twitter.com/vbwEFzgWpO
— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) April 19, 2024
The Lakers have already been linked to the Hawks as possible trade partners for star point guard Trae Young. ESPN’s Dave McMenamin reported in January that the Lakers held “internal conversations” about the possibility of acquiring Young or Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell ahead of the February trade deadline, although they ultimately chose to stand pat at the time.
McMenamin also wrote that this summer “could call for a bigger pivot if there is a playoff letdown.” Losing in the first round would likely count as such, even though it came against the defending champion Denver Nuggets
The wild card here may be Bronny James, who both joined the NBA draft and the NCAA transfer portal in early April. The elder James has long spoken about his intention to play with his son in the NBA—although he’s walked that back a bit recently—but it’s unclear whether Bronny will even stay in the draft. If he does, would some team pick him to entice LeBron to sign with them in free agency?
The Lakers are one of many variables in this possibly messy offseason equation. The Suns look pot-committed to Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal moving forward, but getting swept out of the first round by the Minnesota Timberwolves doesn’t inspire much confidence in that plan moving forward.
With Jusuf Nurkic under contract through 2025–26 and Grayson Allen starting a new four-year, $70 million contract next season, the Suns project to be well over the NBA’s $189.5 million second apron, which will subject them to some harsh roster-building restrictions. Much like this past summer, they won’t have access to a mid-level exception this offseason, so they can only give out minimum contracts to external free agents.
The Suns fared pretty well with that last offseason, signing the likes of Eric Gordon, Josh Okogie, and Drew Eubanks to round out their rotation behind Durant, Booker, and Beal. But starting this summer, the Suns also won’t be able to aggregate contracts in trades or take back more salary in a trade than they send out. Had they been subject to those restrictions last year, they couldn’t have wiggled their way into the Damian Lillard blockbuster between the Bucks and the Portland Trail Blazers to buy Allen and Nurkic.
The Bucks find themselves in the same second-apron problem after acquiring Lillard, although they can fall back on injuries as an excuse for their earlier-than-expected demise. Giannis Antetokounmpo missed the entire first-round series against the Indiana Pacers with a calf injury that he suffered late in the season, while Damian Lillard missed two games with an Achilles injury.
Between that and their midseason coaching change from Adrian Griffin to Doc Rivers, the Bucks could possibly talk themselves into running this same core back next year and hoping for better luck on the health front. However, the upstart Pacers revealed the injury-ravaged Bucks as being somewhat old and slow, a problem that won’t solve itself if they stand relatively pat.
Even the New Orleans Pelicans appear ready to consider a summer shakeup after getting swept by the No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round.
Pelicans executive David Griffin: “In the past, we’ve always erred on the side of continuity, and our takeaway has always been let’s see this group healthy. I think we’ve seen it enough. I think we had some really good opportunity to see Zion play a career-high in games. I think… pic.twitter.com/IXWiezC6yP
— Michael Scotto (@MikeAScotto) April 30, 2024
Zion Williamson missed the whole series with a hamstring injury that he got in the first game of the play-in tournament. Neither CJ McCollum (17.8 points per game on 41.9% shooting) nor Brandon Ingram (14.3 points per game on 34.5% shooting) were able to pick up the slack. With Ingram going into the final year of his contract and Trey Murphy III eligible for an extension this summer, the Pelicans might have to pick between the two.
Meanwhile, the Sixers have a blank canvas in their hands. Joel Embiid is the only player on a guaranteed deal beyond this season, which means the Sixers can create up to $65 million in cap space this summer while still keeping the cap hold for star point guard Tyrese Maxey. Their reported interest in Clippers forward Paul George is one of the NBA’s worst-kept secrets, but they’ll have plenty of choices to explore this offseason.
More drama could be coming, too. If the Cavaliers can’t close out their first-round game against the Orlando Magic or get blown out in the Eastern Conference Semifinals by the Boston Celtics, that could cause Mitchell to reconsider his future. He’s on a guaranteed deal through next season, but he has a $37.1 million player option in 2025–26 that he figures to decline.
With the danger of the new second apron looming large over teams, NBA fans should brace themselves for an offseason full of player movement. Considering how many expensive teams exited the playoffs far earlier than thought, we could be in for some seismic changes across the Association.
